Heerenveen 1-1 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heerenveen at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heerenveen vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 14 as Heerenveen welcome Waalwijk to Abe Lenstra Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 29 November 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Heerenveen have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Heerenveen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Heerenveen are significantly better at Abe Lenstra Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Waalwijk — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Heerenveen are in the better shape of the two on current Eredivisie data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Heerenveen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Waalwijk in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Heerenveen, 1 for Waalwijk and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Heerenveen in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heerenveen 51% versus Waalwijk 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heerenveen 66% | Waalwijk 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heerenveen 2.35 xG and Waalwijk 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heerenveen attack 1.003 / defence 0.834 | Waalwijk attack 0.976 / defence 1.404. League average goals — home 1.669 / away 1.269. Waalwijk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.404 — this is suppressing Heerenveen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Heerenveen games / 47 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heerenveen 67% | Draw 18% | Waalwijk 15%. Fair-value odds: Heerenveen 1.49 | Draw 5.56 | Waalwijk 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Heerenveen (67%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Heerenveen at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.38 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Heerenveen 60% | Waalwijk 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heerenveen vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 29 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heerenveen 67% | Draw 18% | Waalwijk 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 58% | xG Heerenveen 2.35 / Waalwijk 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Heerenveen attack 1.003 / def 0.834 | Waalwijk attack 0.976 / def 1.404 | league avg home 1.669 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Heerenveen (67%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
Heerenveen xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Waalwijk xG
58%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heerenveen vs Waalwijk kick off?
Heerenveen vs Waalwijk kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 29 November 2024 at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What was the final score in Heerenveen vs Waalwijk?
Heerenveen 1 - 1 Waalwijk.
Where is Heerenveen vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What competition is Heerenveen vs Waalwijk part of?
Heerenveen vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heerenveen vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Heerenveen a 67% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 15% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Heerenveen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Heerenveen and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Heerenveen vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and Waalwijk?
Record (6 meetings): Heerenveen 2W | Draws 3 | Waalwijk 1W.
What form are Heerenveen and Waalwijk in?
Heerenveen (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Waalwijk (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Heerenveen vs Waalwijk?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Heerenveen's attack at 1.00x the league average against Waalwijk's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 2.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus Heerenveen's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (9.4%), 1-1 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heerenveen Win
67%
1.50
18%
5.50
15%
6.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
Heerenveen xG
Total xG
3.38
1.03
Waalwijk xG
1.50
67%
Home win
5.50
18%
Draw
6.64
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
10%
10.51
Win to Nil
24%
4.21
1%
69.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heerenveen vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Heerenveen and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Heerenveen and 1.03 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Heerenveen vs Waalwijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Heerenveen have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 14W 9D 24L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Heerenveen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Waalwijk's form line: 8W 10D 29L from 47 games, 0.72 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Heerenveen on 1.09 PPG, Waalwijk on 0.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Heerenveen have posted 1.52 PPG from 23 outings (10W 5D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Heerenveen are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 3W 3D 17L from 23 away games — 0.52 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heerenveen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Heerenveen are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.04 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.06 scored and 1.89 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heerenveen
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heerenveen and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Heerenveen have gone 14W 9D 24L in their last 47 games (1.09 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 8W 10D 29L in their last 47 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heerenveen at home or Waalwijk away?
Heerenveen's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heerenveen at home: 1.52 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2023, when Waalwijk won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heerenveen's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Heerenveen
4
Draws
2
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and Waalwijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Heerenveen have won 2, Waalwijk have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Heerenveen and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Waalwijk 3-1 Heerenveen.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heerenveen 56%, Waalwijk 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Heerenveen and 61% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heerenveen keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Waalwijk in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heerenveen home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heerenveen play Waalwijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Heerenveen's recent matches and 52% of Waalwijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Heerenveen vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Heerenveen's matches and 61% of Waalwijk's.
Do Heerenveen and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Heerenveen have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Heerenveen and Waalwijk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heerenveen and Waalwijk finished level at 1-1 at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 2.35 xG and Waalwijk 1.03 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Heerenveen fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 1.00 / defence 0.83 against Waalwijk attack 0.98 / defence 1.40, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 67% | Draw 18% | Waalwijk 15%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 66%, Waalwijk 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heerenveen's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Waalwijk's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heerenveen 1.09 PPG, Waalwijk 0.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Waalwijk (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.