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Dominant Groningen run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Waalwijk.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Groningen beat Waalwijk 6-1 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 31, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.67 xG and Waalwijk 1.14 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Groningen beat their projection by 4.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.90 / defence 0.92 against Waalwijk attack 0.96 / defence 1.17, drawn from 30/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Groningen 49% | Draw 27% | Waalwijk 25%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 53%, Waalwijk 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Groningen's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Waalwijk's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Groningen arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm. Waalwijk (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights