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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Groningen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Telstar.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Groningen beat Telstar 2-0 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 6, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.76 xG and Telstar 1.03 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Telstar landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 1.25 / defence 0.85 against Telstar attack 0.85 / defence 0.86, drawn from 39/5 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Groningen 54% | Draw 23% | Telstar 22%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 54%, Telstar 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Groningen's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Telstar's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Telstar arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Groningen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Telstar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights