Groningen 2-3 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Groningen at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam meet at Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 15:45 UTC.
Form
Groningen (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen's home record at Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sparta Rotterdam's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Groningen's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Sparta Rotterdam's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Groningen register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Sparta Rotterdam in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Sparta Rotterdam, who have claimed 6 wins from 8 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 0–2 with Sparta Rotterdam winning.
It is worth noting that Sparta Rotterdam have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Groningen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Sparta Rotterdam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 61% versus Sparta Rotterdam 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 61% | Sparta Rotterdam 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 2.38 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 1.177 / defence 1.114 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.018 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.737 / away 1.776. Data: 44 Groningen games / 44 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 47% | Draw 20% | Sparta Rotterdam 33%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 2.13 | Draw 5.00 | Sparta Rotterdam 3.03. Groningen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS probability 79% | Total xG 4.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 79% reflects that both xG figures (2.38 / 2.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Sparta Rotterdam lead the H2H ledger, but Groningen carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.39 combined xG gives a 81% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 79%. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 70% | Sparta Rotterdam 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 47% | Draw 20% | Sparta Rotterdam 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 81% | BTTS 79% | xG Groningen 2.38 / Sparta Rotterdam 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 1.177 / def 1.114 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.018 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.737 / away 1.776 • Poisson stance: Groningen (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.38
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
2.01
Sparta Rotterdam xG
79%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Groningen 2 - 3 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion.
What competition is Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 47% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 33% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 79% probability that both Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 81%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam?
Record (8 meetings): Groningen 1W | Draws 1 | Sparta Rotterdam 6W.
What form are Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam in?
Groningen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Groningen's attack rating (1.18) and Sparta Rotterdam's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 2.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sparta Rotterdam's attack (1.02x) against Groningen's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 2.01.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.1%), 1-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
47%
2.15
20%
4.95
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
1 – 2
6.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.38
Groningen xG
Total xG
4.39
2.01
Sparta Rotterdam xG
2.15
47%
Home win
4.95
20%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
81%
Over 2.5
1.23
19%
Under 2.5
5.26
64%
Over 3.5
1.56
36%
Under 3.5
2.78
45%
Over 4.5
2.22
55%
Under 4.5
1.82
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
79%
BTTS Yes
1.27
21%
BTTS No
4.76
Clean Sheet
13%
7.49
9%
10.76
Win to Nil
6%
16.07
3%
32.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.1%.
How many goals are Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Groningen and 2.01 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 4.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Groningen's recent record stands at 18W 9D 17L from 44 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Rotterdam, meanwhile, have gone 14W 10D 20L across 44 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Groningen against 1.18 for Sparta Rotterdam. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Groningen have managed 8W 5D 8L from 21 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sparta Rotterdam's away record stands at 7W 3D 11L across 21 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Groningen are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 1.30 scored and 1.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Groningen have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 18W 9D 17L in their last 44 games (1.43 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 14W 10D 20L in their last 44 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
Groningen's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.38 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Sparta Rotterdam have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Rotterdam won 0-5 on 28 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Groningen have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Rotterdam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Groningen
1
Draws
7
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 9 meetings on record, Groningen have won 1, Sparta Rotterdam have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when Groningen 2-3 Sparta Rotterdam.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 57%, Sparta Rotterdam 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Groningen and 71% for Sparta Rotterdam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Sparta Rotterdam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Groningen's recent matches and 52% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Groningen's matches and 71% of Sparta Rotterdam's.
Do Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sparta Rotterdam defy the odds to beat Groningen 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam beat Groningen 2-3 at Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 2.38 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 2.01 xG, a combined 4.39. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Sparta Rotterdam outscored their 2.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 1.18 / defence 1.11 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.02 / defence 1.16, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 47% | Draw 20% | Sparta Rotterdam 33%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Sparta Rotterdam win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 64% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 79% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 61%, Sparta Rotterdam 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Groningen 1.43 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sparta Rotterdam win broke the near-deadlock. Groningen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.