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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sparta Rotterdam cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Groningen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Rotterdam beat Groningen 0-2 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 9, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.93 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 0.97 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Groningen fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Sparta Rotterdam outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 1.08 / defence 0.72 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.91 / defence 1.05, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Groningen 60% | Draw 22% | Sparta Rotterdam 19%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Sparta Rotterdam win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 52%, Sparta Rotterdam 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Groningen's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Groningen 1.29 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sparta Rotterdam win broke the near-deadlock. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights