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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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PSV Eindhoven cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Groningen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PSV Eindhoven beat Groningen 1-3 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 28, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.15 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.41 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. PSV Eindhoven outscored their 1.41 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.71 / defence 0.73 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.45 / defence 1.02, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Groningen 30% | Draw 27% | PSV Eindhoven 43%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 51%, PSV Eindhoven 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Groningen's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.64. That form edge translated into the three points. Groningen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights