Groningen 3-0 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Groningen at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Groningen vs PEC Zwolle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 7 as Groningen welcome PEC Zwolle to Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 18 September 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Groningen — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Groningen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Groningen at Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PEC Zwolle stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. PEC Zwolle have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PEC Zwolle's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Groningen have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Groningen, 1 for PEC Zwolle and 5 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Groningen trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
PEC Zwolle trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Groningen 60% and PEC Zwolle 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 58% | PEC Zwolle 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 2.05 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 1.072 / defence 0.943 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.990 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.915. Data: 40 Groningen games / 40 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 43% | Draw 24% | PEC Zwolle 33%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | PEC Zwolle 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.83. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.83 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.05 / 1.79) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.83 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 80% | PEC Zwolle 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 18 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 43% | Draw 24% | PEC Zwolle 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 74% | xG Groningen 2.05 / PEC Zwolle 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 1.072 / def 0.943 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.990 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.673 / away 1.915 • Poisson stance: Groningen (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.79
PEC Zwolle xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Groningen vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 18 September 2026 at Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion.
What was the final score in Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
Groningen 3 - 0 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Groningen vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion.
What competition is Groningen vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Groningen vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 43% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Groningen and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and PEC Zwolle?
Record (6 meetings): Groningen 0W | Draws 5 | PEC Zwolle 1W.
What form are Groningen and PEC Zwolle in?
Groningen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Groningen's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against PEC Zwolle's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.05. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.1%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
43%
2.31
24%
4.24
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Groningen xG
Total xG
3.83
1.79
PEC Zwolle xG
2.31
43%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.36
26%
BTTS No
3.81
Clean Sheet
17%
5.98
13%
7.74
Win to Nil
7%
13.80
4%
23.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Groningen and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Groningen and 1.79 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Groningen's recent record stands at 16W 8D 16L from 40 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Groningen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PEC Zwolle, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 19L across 40 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Groningen on 1.40 PPG, PEC Zwolle on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Groningen have managed 8W 5D 7L from 20 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PEC Zwolle's away record stands at 2W 7D 11L across 20 trips, a 0.65 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Groningen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Groningen are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.25 scored and 2.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Groningen have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; PEC Zwolle in 65%.
Last 40 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Early Season
PEC Zwolle
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 16W 8D 16L in their last 40 games (1.40 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 10W 11D 19L in their last 40 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Groningen's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.45 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 18 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2026, when Groningen won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Groningen's record when hosting PEC Zwolle specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Groningen
5
Draws
1
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and PEC Zwolle?
From 7 meetings on record, Groningen have won 1, PEC Zwolle have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2026, when Groningen 3-0 PEC Zwolle.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Groningen at 60%, PEC Zwolle at 85%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Groningen and 75% for PEC Zwolle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Groningen's games and 85% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Groningen vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Groningen's matches and 75% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do Groningen and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Groningen run riot with a 3-0 hammering of PEC Zwolle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat PEC Zwolle 3-0 at Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 2.05 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.79 xG, a combined 3.83. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Groningen beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PEC Zwolle landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 1.07 / defence 0.94 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.99 / defence 1.14, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 43% | Draw 24% | PEC Zwolle 33%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 58%, PEC Zwolle 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Groningen 1.40 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Groningen win broke the near-deadlock. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.