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Shock result as Groningen defy the odds to beat NEC Nijmegen 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Groningen beat NEC Nijmegen 2-1 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 33, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.35 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.69 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.94 / defence 0.99 against NEC Nijmegen attack 1.32 / defence 0.84, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Groningen 28% | Draw 30% | NEC Nijmegen 43%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Groningen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 52%, NEC Nijmegen 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Groningen's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Groningen 1.23 PPG, NEC Nijmegen 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Groningen win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights