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Stalemate at Groningen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Groningen and NAC Breda finished level at 0-0 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 18, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.89 xG and NAC Breda 0.95 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Groningen fell 1.9 short of their projected output. NAC Breda landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 1.02 / defence 0.88 against NAC Breda attack 0.78 / defence 1.11, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Groningen 59% | Draw 22% | NAC Breda 19%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 49%, NAC Breda 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Groningen's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

NAC Breda's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Groningen 1.29 PPG, NAC Breda 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights