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Dominant Groningen run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Heracles.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Groningen beat Heracles 4-1 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 30, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.14 xG and Heracles 0.78 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Groningen beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.70 / defence 0.89 against Heracles attack 0.68 / defence 1.00, drawn from 29/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Groningen 44% | Draw 32% | Heracles 25%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 52%, Heracles 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Groningen's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Heracles's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Groningen arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Heracles (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights