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Prediction vindicated as Groningen edge out Heerenveen 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Groningen beat Heerenveen 2-1 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 2, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 2.04 xG and Heerenveen 1.07 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 1.10 / defence 0.96 against Heerenveen attack 0.90 / defence 1.06, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Groningen 58% | Draw 23% | Heerenveen 18%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 51%, Heerenveen 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Groningen's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Heerenveen's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Groningen 1.11 PPG, Heerenveen 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Groningen win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights