Groningen vs Feyenoord – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Feyenoord (67%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Groningen face Feyenoord.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Feyenoord travel to Euroborg to take on Groningen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 December 2026, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Groningen stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Euroborg, Groningen have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Feyenoord have recorded 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feyenoord away from home this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Feyenoord are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Groningen register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Feyenoord in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour Feyenoord, who boast 5 victories compared to 0 for Groningen.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 1–3 with Feyenoord winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Feyenoord have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Groningen in-play tendencies (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games).
Feyenoord in-play tendencies (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Groningen 62% and Feyenoord 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 62% | Feyenoord 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.56 xG and Feyenoord 3.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 1.148 / defence 1.128 | Feyenoord attack 1.447 / defence 0.784. League average goals — home 1.731 / away 1.842. Feyenoord's defence strength of 0.784 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Feyenoord have an above-average attack strength of 1.447 — the away xG of 3.01 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Groningen games / 45 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 17% | Draw 16% | Feyenoord 67%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 5.88 | Draw 6.25 | Feyenoord 1.49. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (67%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 83% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 83% — a total xG of 4.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 3.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Feyenoord are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.56 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 83% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 75%. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 70% | Feyenoord 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Dec 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 17% | Draw 16% | Feyenoord 67% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 83% | BTTS 75% | xG Groningen 1.56 / Feyenoord 3.01 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 1.148 / def 1.128 | Feyenoord attack 1.447 / def 0.784 | league avg home 1.731 / away 1.842 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
3.01
Feyenoord xG
75%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
67%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Feyenoord kick off?
Groningen vs Feyenoord is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Sunday 13 December 2026 at Euroborg.
Where is Groningen vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Feyenoord part of?
Groningen vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 17% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 67% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both Groningen and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 83%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Feyenoord?
Record (8 meetings): Groningen 0W | Draws 3 | Feyenoord 5W.
What form are Groningen and Feyenoord in?
Groningen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Feyenoord (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Groningen's attack rating (1.15) and Feyenoord's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Feyenoord's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 3.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-3 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.3%), 2-3 (5.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
17%
5.77
16%
6.33
67%
1.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 3
7.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
2 – 2
5.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Groningen xG
Total xG
4.56
3.01
Feyenoord xG
5.77
17%
Home win
6.33
16%
Draw
1.50
67%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
83%
Over 2.5
1.20
17%
Under 2.5
5.88
67%
Over 3.5
1.49
33%
Under 3.5
3.03
48%
Over 4.5
2.08
52%
Under 4.5
1.92
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.33
25%
BTTS No
4.02
Clean Sheet
5%
20.23
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
1%
116.65
14%
7.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 1.6 | 4.9 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 3.3 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 2.6 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-3 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.4%.
How many goals are Groningen and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Groningen and 3.01 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 4.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Feyenoord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Groningen come into this having played 45 games, going 18W 9D 18L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Feyenoord sit at 2.00 PPG from 45 outings (26W 12D 7L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Groningen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Groningen's home form reads 9W 5D 9L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Feyenoord have taken 1.96 points per game from 23 outings (13W 6D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Groningen are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.29 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Groningen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Feyenoord in 62%.
Last 45 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 18W 9D 18L in their last 45 games (1.40 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 26W 12D 7L in their last 45 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.39 PPG; Feyenoord away: 1.96 PPG.
Have Groningen or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Feyenoord have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Jan 2023, when Feyenoord won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Groningen's record when hosting Feyenoord specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Groningen
3
Draws
5
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Feyenoord?
From 8 meetings on record, Groningen have won 0, Feyenoord have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Feyenoord 3-1 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 61%, Feyenoord 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Groningen and 61% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Feyenoord in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Groningen's games and 52% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Groningen vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Groningen's matches and 61% of Feyenoord's.
Do Groningen and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.