Groningen vs Feyenoord – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Groningen face Feyenoord.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Feyenoord travel to Euroborg to take on Groningen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 December 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Groningen stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Groningen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Euroborg, Groningen have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Feyenoord have recorded 5W 5D 0L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Feyenoord have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Feyenoord away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Feyenoord are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour Feyenoord, who boast 5 victories compared to 0 for Groningen.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 1–3 with Feyenoord winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Feyenoord have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Groningen in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Feyenoord in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Groningen 58% and Feyenoord 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 58% | Feyenoord 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.51 xG and Feyenoord 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 1.044 / defence 0.936 | Feyenoord attack 1.050 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.880. Data: 38 Groningen games / 38 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 31% | Draw 24% | Feyenoord 45%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Feyenoord 2.22. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Feyenoord are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Feyenoord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.36 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 80% | Feyenoord 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Dec 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 31% | Draw 24% | Feyenoord 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Groningen 1.51 / Feyenoord 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 1.044 / def 0.936 | Feyenoord attack 1.050 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.880 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Feyenoord xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Feyenoord kick off?
Groningen vs Feyenoord is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 13 December 2026 at Euroborg.
Where is Groningen vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Feyenoord part of?
Groningen vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 31% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Groningen and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Feyenoord?
Record (8 meetings): Groningen 0W | Draws 3 | Feyenoord 5W.
What form are Groningen and Feyenoord in?
Groningen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Feyenoord (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Groningen's attack rating (1.04) and Feyenoord's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Feyenoord's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
31%
3.21
24%
4.25
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Groningen xG
Total xG
3.36
1.85
Feyenoord xG
3.21
31%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
16%
6.35
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
5%
20.36
10%
10.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Groningen and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Groningen and 1.85 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Feyenoord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Groningen come into this having played 38 games, going 16W 6D 16L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Groningen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Feyenoord sit at 1.92 PPG from 38 outings (21W 10D 7L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Feyenoord, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Groningen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Groningen's home form reads 8W 4D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Feyenoord have taken 1.84 points per game from 19 outings (10W 5D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Groningen are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.11 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Feyenoord in 63%.
Last 38 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Early Season
Feyenoord
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 16W 6D 16L in their last 38 games (1.42 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 21W 10D 7L in their last 38 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.47 PPG; Feyenoord away: 1.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Feyenoord have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Jan 2023, when Feyenoord won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Groningen's record when hosting Feyenoord specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Groningen
3
Draws
5
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Feyenoord?
From 8 meetings on record, Groningen have won 0, Feyenoord have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Feyenoord 3-1 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 58%, Feyenoord 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Groningen and 58% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Feyenoord in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Feyenoord?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Groningen's recent matches and 47% of Feyenoord's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Groningen vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Groningen's matches and 58% of Feyenoord's.
Do Groningen and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.