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Dominant Groningen run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Volendam.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Groningen beat FC Volendam 3-0 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 16, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.88 xG and FC Volendam 0.82 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Groningen beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Volendam landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.90 / defence 0.91 against FC Volendam attack 0.64 / defence 1.22, drawn from 49/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Groningen 62% | Draw 22% | FC Volendam 16%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 49%, FC Volendam 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Groningen's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Volendam's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with Groningen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights