🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Excelsior defy the odds to beat Groningen 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Excelsior beat Groningen 2-3 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 32, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.66 xG and Excelsior 0.95 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Excelsior outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.92 / defence 0.85 against Excelsior attack 0.88 / defence 1.04, drawn from 65/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Groningen 51% | Draw 31% | Excelsior 18%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Excelsior win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 51%, Excelsior 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Groningen's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Excelsior's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Groningen 1.25 PPG, Excelsior 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Excelsior win broke the near-deadlock. Groningen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Excelsior (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights