Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees AZ Alkmaar travel to Euroborg to take on Groningen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Groningen have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Groningen have posted 4W 2D 4L at Euroborg — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AZ Alkmaar — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. AZ Alkmaar are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
AZ Alkmaar have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 8 encounters against Groningen's 2 victories.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 3–0 with Groningen winning.
It is worth noting that AZ Alkmaar have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Groningen in-play tendencies (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games).
AZ Alkmaar in-play tendencies (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Groningen 62% and AZ Alkmaar 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 62% | AZ Alkmaar 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.73 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 1.147 / defence 1.127 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.902 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.731 / away 1.842. Data: 45 Groningen games / 45 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 36% | Draw 22% | AZ Alkmaar 42%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 2.78 | Draw 4.55 | AZ Alkmaar 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AZ Alkmaar are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.60 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 70% | AZ Alkmaar 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 36% | Draw 22% | AZ Alkmaar 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Groningen 1.73 / AZ Alkmaar 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 1.147 / def 1.127 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.902 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.731 / away 1.842 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.87
AZ Alkmaar xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 14 February 2027 at Euroborg.
Where is Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 36% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 42% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Groningen and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (8 meetings): Groningen 2W | Draws 1 | AZ Alkmaar 5W.
What form are Groningen and AZ Alkmaar in?
Groningen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Groningen's attack at 1.15x the league average against AZ Alkmaar's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AZ Alkmaar's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 1.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
36%
2.78
22%
4.51
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Groningen xG
Total xG
3.60
1.87
AZ Alkmaar xG
2.78
36%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.30
Clean Sheet
15%
6.51
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
6%
18.11
7%
13.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Groningen and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Groningen and 1.87 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Groningen come into this having played 45 games, going 18W 9D 18L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AZ Alkmaar sit at 1.60 PPG from 45 outings (20W 12D 13L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Groningen on 1.40 PPG, AZ Alkmaar on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Groningen's home form reads 9W 5D 9L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, AZ Alkmaar have taken 1.35 points per game from 23 outings (9W 4D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Groningen are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 1.73 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Groningen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; AZ Alkmaar in 60%.
Last 45 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 18W 9D 18L in their last 45 games (1.40 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 20W 12D 13L in their last 45 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
Groningen's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.39 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when AZ Alkmaar won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Groningen's record when hosting AZ Alkmaar specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Groningen
1
Draws
5
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and AZ Alkmaar?
From 8 meetings on record, Groningen have won 2, AZ Alkmaar have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Groningen 3-0 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 61%, AZ Alkmaar 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Groningen and 52% for AZ Alkmaar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; AZ Alkmaar in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play AZ Alkmaar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Groningen's games and 52% of AZ Alkmaar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Groningen's matches and 52% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do Groningen and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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