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Stalemate at Groningen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Euroborg, Regular Season - 18, as Groningen and Almere City FC drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.37 xG and Almere City FC 0.58 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Groningen fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.71 / defence 0.77 against Almere City FC attack 0.57 / defence 1.12, drawn from 16/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Groningen 56% | Draw 28% | Almere City FC 16%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 53%, Almere City FC 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Groningen's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Almere City FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Groningen arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights