GO Ahead Eagles 2-2 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates GO Ahead Eagles at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees PEC Zwolle travel to De Adelaarshorst to take on GO Ahead Eagles. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 November 2024, 11:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, GO Ahead Eagles stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for GO Ahead Eagles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GO Ahead Eagles's home record at De Adelaarshorst: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, PEC Zwolle have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, PEC Zwolle have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
GO Ahead Eagles are in the better shape of the two on current Eredivisie data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for GO Ahead Eagles, 0 for PEC Zwolle and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
GO Ahead Eagles trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
PEC Zwolle trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GO Ahead Eagles 50% versus PEC Zwolle 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GO Ahead Eagles 50% | PEC Zwolle 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GO Ahead Eagles 1.83 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.968 / defence 1.236 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.779 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.638 / away 1.228. Data: 44 GO Ahead Eagles games / 44 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GO Ahead Eagles 53% | Draw 23% | PEC Zwolle 25%. Fair-value odds: GO Ahead Eagles 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | PEC Zwolle 4.00. GO Ahead Eagles hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates GO Ahead Eagles as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GO Ahead Eagles offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: GO Ahead Eagles 50% | PEC Zwolle 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: De Adelaarshorst • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GO Ahead Eagles 53% | Draw 23% | PEC Zwolle 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG GO Ahead Eagles 1.83 / PEC Zwolle 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.968 / def 1.236 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.779 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.638 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: GO Ahead Eagles (53%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
GO Ahead Eagles xG
Expected Goals
1.18
PEC Zwolle xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at De Adelaarshorst.
What was the final score in GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle?
GO Ahead Eagles 2 - 2 PEC Zwolle.
Where is GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at De Adelaarshorst.
What competition is GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle part of?
GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives GO Ahead Eagles a 53% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making GO Ahead Eagles the favourite.
Will both teams score in GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle?
Record (4 meetings): GO Ahead Eagles 2W | Draws 2 | PEC Zwolle 0W.
What form are GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle in?
GO Ahead Eagles (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from GO Ahead Eagles's attack rating (0.97) and PEC Zwolle's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus GO Ahead Eagles's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
GO Ahead Eagles Win
53%
1.90
23%
4.37
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
GO Ahead Eagles xG
Total xG
3.01
1.18
PEC Zwolle xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
4%
25.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.6 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for GO Ahead Eagles and 1.18 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
GO Ahead Eagles come into this having played 44 games, going 17W 12D 15L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-D. The sample for GO Ahead Eagles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PEC Zwolle sit at 1.00 PPG from 44 outings (11W 11D 22L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GO Ahead Eagles carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
GO Ahead Eagles's home form reads 8W 5D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, PEC Zwolle have taken 0.95 points per game from 21 outings (4W 8D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GO Ahead Eagles come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
GO Ahead Eagles are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.23 scored and 1.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle in 64%.
Last 44 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GO Ahead Eagles
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
GO Ahead Eagles have gone 17W 12D 15L in their last 44 games (1.43 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 11W 11D 22L in their last 44 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GO Ahead Eagles at home or PEC Zwolle away?
GO Ahead Eagles's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GO Ahead Eagles at home: 1.38 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
GO Ahead Eagles have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Apr 2026, when GO Ahead Eagles won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
GO Ahead Eagles's record when hosting PEC Zwolle specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
GO Ahead Eagles
4
Draws
0
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle?
From 8 meetings on record, GO Ahead Eagles have won 4, PEC Zwolle have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when GO Ahead Eagles 5-0 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle?
GO Ahead Eagles have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
GO Ahead Eagles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GO Ahead Eagles 52%, PEC Zwolle 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (GO Ahead Eagles) and 57% (PEC Zwolle). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GO Ahead Eagles home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GO Ahead Eagles play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of GO Ahead Eagles's games and 62% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of GO Ahead Eagles's matches and 57% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
GO Ahead Eagles have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle finished level at 2-2 at De Adelaarshorst, Regular Season - 11, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GO Ahead Eagles 1.83 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.18 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. PEC Zwolle outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.97 / defence 1.24 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.78 / defence 1.16, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GO Ahead Eagles 53% | Draw 23% | PEC Zwolle 25%, with GO Ahead Eagles to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GO Ahead Eagles 50%, PEC Zwolle 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, GO Ahead Eagles arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.