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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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GO Ahead Eagles and NEC Nijmegen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GO Ahead Eagles and NEC Nijmegen finished level at 1-1 at De Adelaarshorst, Regular Season - 8, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GO Ahead Eagles 1.87 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.89 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. GO Ahead Eagles fell 0.9 short of their projected output. NEC Nijmegen landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.98 / defence 1.05 against NEC Nijmegen attack 1.23 / defence 1.11, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GO Ahead Eagles 39% | Draw 21% | NEC Nijmegen 40%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GO Ahead Eagles 66%, NEC Nijmegen 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GO Ahead Eagles 1.46 PPG, NEC Nijmegen 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. GO Ahead Eagles (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights