🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant GO Ahead Eagles run riot with a 6-0 hammering of NAC Breda.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GO Ahead Eagles beat NAC Breda 6-0 at De Adelaarshorst, Regular Season - 27, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GO Ahead Eagles 1.58 xG and NAC Breda 1.18 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. GO Ahead Eagles beat their projection by 4.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. NAC Breda landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.98 / defence 1.18 against NAC Breda attack 0.73 / defence 0.96, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GO Ahead Eagles 46% | Draw 27% | NAC Breda 27%, with GO Ahead Eagles to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GO Ahead Eagles 62%, NAC Breda 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

NAC Breda's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, GO Ahead Eagles arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.93. Form held, and they took the win. GO Ahead Eagles (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. NAC Breda (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights