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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Heerenveen cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over GO Ahead Eagles.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Heerenveen beat GO Ahead Eagles 1-3 at De Adelaarshorst, Regular Season - 20, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GO Ahead Eagles 1.80 xG and Heerenveen 1.38 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. GO Ahead Eagles fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Heerenveen outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.96 / defence 0.99 against Heerenveen attack 0.98 / defence 1.14, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GO Ahead Eagles 47% | Draw 23% | Heerenveen 30%, with GO Ahead Eagles to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Heerenveen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GO Ahead Eagles 62%, Heerenveen 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Heerenveen's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GO Ahead Eagles 1.35 PPG, Heerenveen 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heerenveen win broke the near-deadlock. GO Ahead Eagles (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Heerenveen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights