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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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GO Ahead Eagles and Fortuna Sittard share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at De Adelaarshorst, Regular Season - 18, as GO Ahead Eagles and Fortuna Sittard drew 2-2 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GO Ahead Eagles 1.79 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.09 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Fortuna Sittard outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.97 / defence 0.93 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.84 / defence 1.12, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GO Ahead Eagles 54% | Draw 23% | Fortuna Sittard 23%, with GO Ahead Eagles to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GO Ahead Eagles 63%, Fortuna Sittard 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GO Ahead Eagles 1.37 PPG, Fortuna Sittard 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights