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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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GO Ahead Eagles cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Excelsior.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GO Ahead Eagles beat Excelsior 2-0 at De Adelaarshorst, Regular Season - 10, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GO Ahead Eagles 2.01 xG and Excelsior 1.15 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Excelsior landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.92 / defence 0.94 against Excelsior attack 0.78 / defence 1.28, drawn from 43/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GO Ahead Eagles 57% | Draw 21% | Excelsior 21%, with GO Ahead Eagles to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GO Ahead Eagles 65%, Excelsior 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Excelsior's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GO Ahead Eagles 1.42 PPG, Excelsior 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GO Ahead Eagles win broke the near-deadlock. GO Ahead Eagles (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights