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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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GO Ahead Eagles and Ajax share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at De Adelaarshorst, Regular Season - 2, as GO Ahead Eagles and Ajax drew 2-2 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GO Ahead Eagles 1.51 xG and Ajax 1.33 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.98 / defence 1.00 against Ajax attack 1.07 / defence 0.88, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it GO Ahead Eagles 40% | Draw 28% | Ajax 32%, with GO Ahead Eagles to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GO Ahead Eagles 63%, Ajax 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Ajax's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.49. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ajax (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights