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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Telstar run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Fortuna Sittard.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Telstar beat Fortuna Sittard 1-4 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.80 xG and Telstar 1.14 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Telstar outscored their 1.14 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 1.02 / defence 1.11 against Telstar attack 0.77 / defence 1.07, drawn from 59/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 52% | Draw 25% | Telstar 23%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Telstar win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 58%, Telstar 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Telstar's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fortuna Sittard 1.24 PPG, Telstar 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Telstar win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Telstar (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights