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Dominant Sparta Rotterdam run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Fortuna Sittard.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Rotterdam beat Fortuna Sittard 0-3 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.13 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.18 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Fortuna Sittard fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Sparta Rotterdam outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.80 / defence 1.16 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.78 / defence 0.89, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 34% | Draw 29% | Sparta Rotterdam 37%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 57%, Sparta Rotterdam 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fortuna Sittard 1.17 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sparta Rotterdam win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights