Fortuna Sittard 1-1 PSV Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PSV Eindhoven (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fortuna Sittard face PSV Eindhoven.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fortuna Sittard Stadion plays host to Fortuna Sittard versus PSV Eindhoven in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Fortuna Sittard's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Fortuna Sittard's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Fortuna Sittard Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
PSV Eindhoven (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, PSV Eindhoven have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 3.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
PSV Eindhoven arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fortuna Sittard have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, PSV Eindhoven in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
PSV Eindhoven hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 1–3 with PSV Eindhoven winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. PSV Eindhoven have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 4.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Fortuna Sittard half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
PSV Eindhoven half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Sittard 50% versus PSV Eindhoven 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fortuna Sittard 61% | PSV Eindhoven 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 0.99 xG and PSV Eindhoven 2.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.924 / defence 0.887 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.782 / defence 0.632. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.458. PSV Eindhoven's defence strength of 0.632 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. PSV Eindhoven have an above-average attack strength of 1.782 — the away xG of 2.31 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 66 Fortuna Sittard games / 66 PSV Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 13% | Draw 21% | PSV Eindhoven 66%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 7.69 | Draw 4.76 | PSV Eindhoven 1.52. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (66%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Sittard 60% | PSV Eindhoven 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 13% | Draw 21% | PSV Eindhoven 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 58% | xG Fortuna Sittard 0.99 / PSV Eindhoven 2.31 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.924 / def 0.887 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.782 / def 0.632 | league avg home 1.695 / away 1.458 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
2.31
PSV Eindhoven xG
58%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven?
Fortuna Sittard 1 - 1 PSV Eindhoven.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 13% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 66% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and PSV Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and PSV Eindhoven?
Record (5 meetings): Fortuna Sittard 0W | Draws 1 | PSV Eindhoven 4W.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and PSV Eindhoven in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fortuna Sittard's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against PSV Eindhoven's defensive record (0.63x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. Flip it around — PSV Eindhoven's attack (1.78x) against Fortuna Sittard's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 2.31.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
13%
7.44
21%
4.76
66%
1.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
3.30
2.31
PSV Eindhoven xG
7.44
13%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
1.53
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
10%
10.03
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
1%
74.66
24%
4.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 2.31 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 66 outings, Fortuna Sittard have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 19W 15D 32L record — D-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
PSV Eindhoven's form line: 51W 9D 6L from 66 games, 2.45 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, PSV Eindhoven are the form team by 1.36 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fortuna Sittard.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fortuna Sittard have posted 1.36 PPG from 33 outings (12W 9D 12L).
On the road, PSV Eindhoven have gone 22W 6D 5L from 33 away games — 2.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 2.97 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: PSV Eindhoven in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Current Season
PSV Eindhoven
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 19W 15D 32L in their last 66 games (1.09 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 51W 9D 6L in their last 66 (2.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or PSV Eindhoven away?
PSV Eindhoven's away record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.36 PPG; PSV Eindhoven away: 2.18 PPG.
Have Fortuna Sittard or PSV Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortuna Sittard have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, PSV Eindhoven in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
PSV Eindhoven go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PSV Eindhoven won 5-0 on 20 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Sittard have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PSV Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Fortuna Sittard
2
Draws
8
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and PSV Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 0, PSV Eindhoven have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Fortuna Sittard 1-2 PSV Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fortuna Sittard see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 48%, PSV Eindhoven 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Fortuna Sittard and 73% for PSV Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; PSV Eindhoven in 36%; Fortuna Sittard have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play PSV Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Fortuna Sittard's recent matches and 58% of PSV Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Fortuna Sittard's matches and 73% of PSV Eindhoven's.
Do Fortuna Sittard and PSV Eindhoven tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, PSV Eindhoven in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Sittard and PSV Eindhoven share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 33, as Fortuna Sittard and PSV Eindhoven drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 0.99 xG and PSV Eindhoven 2.31 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. PSV Eindhoven landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.92 / defence 0.89 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.78 / defence 0.63, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 13% | Draw 21% | PSV Eindhoven 66%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 61%, PSV Eindhoven 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.76 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.