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Prediction vindicated as Fortuna Sittard edge out PEC Zwolle 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fortuna Sittard beat PEC Zwolle 3-2 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 2.24 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.50 xG, a combined 3.74. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.87 / defence 1.28 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.90 / defence 1.51, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 52% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 23%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 59%, PEC Zwolle 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fortuna Sittard 1.17 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Sittard win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights