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Dominant PEC Zwolle run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Fortuna Sittard.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PEC Zwolle beat Fortuna Sittard 1-4 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.40 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.12 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. PEC Zwolle outscored their 1.12 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.86 / defence 1.14 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.75 / defence 0.98, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 43% | Draw 27% | PEC Zwolle 30%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual PEC Zwolle win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 58%, PEC Zwolle 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fortuna Sittard 1.19 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights