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Shock result as Fortuna Sittard defy the odds to beat NEC Nijmegen 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fortuna Sittard beat NEC Nijmegen 3-2 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.23 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.60 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Fortuna Sittard beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.85 / defence 1.03 against NEC Nijmegen attack 1.21 / defence 0.84, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 28% | Draw 27% | NEC Nijmegen 45%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Fortuna Sittard win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 53%, NEC Nijmegen 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fortuna Sittard 1.17 PPG, NEC Nijmegen 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Sittard win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights