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Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 30, as Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.93 xG and NAC Breda 1.21 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Fortuna Sittard fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.94 / defence 1.30 against NAC Breda attack 0.71 / defence 1.22, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 52% | Draw 27% | NAC Breda 21%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 59%, NAC Breda 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

NAC Breda's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fortuna Sittard 1.21 PPG, NAC Breda 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. NAC Breda (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights