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Fortuna Sittard and Heracles share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 14, as Fortuna Sittard and Heracles drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 2.02 xG and Heracles 0.93 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Fortuna Sittard fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.88 / defence 0.84 against Heracles attack 0.77 / defence 1.32, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 63% | Draw 21% | Heracles 17%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 51%, Heracles 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Heracles's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fortuna Sittard 1.23 PPG, Heracles 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Heracles (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.35 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights