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Shock result as Groningen defy the odds to beat Fortuna Sittard 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Groningen beat Fortuna Sittard 1-2 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.58 xG and Groningen 1.19 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Groningen outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.89 / defence 0.81 against Groningen attack 0.94 / defence 1.07, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 46% | Draw 25% | Groningen 29%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Groningen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 51%, Groningen 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Groningen's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fortuna Sittard 1.26 PPG, Groningen 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Groningen win broke the near-deadlock. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights