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Feyenoord cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Fortuna Sittard.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Feyenoord beat Fortuna Sittard 0-2 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 0.96 xG and Feyenoord 2.29 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Fortuna Sittard fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.74 / defence 1.28 against Feyenoord attack 1.34 / defence 0.82, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 14% | Draw 19% | Feyenoord 67%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 56%, Feyenoord 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Feyenoord's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Feyenoord (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights