Fortuna Sittard 1-0 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fortuna Sittard at 61% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees FC Volendam travel to Fortuna Sittard Stadion to take on Fortuna Sittard. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 October 2025, 17:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortuna Sittard stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Fortuna Sittard have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Fortuna Sittard have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fortuna Sittard Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, FC Volendam have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Volendam's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Fortuna Sittard) versus 1.30 (FC Volendam). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Fortuna Sittard, 1 for FC Volendam and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2024, ended 1–0 with Fortuna Sittard winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Fortuna Sittard in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
FC Volendam in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Sittard 49% versus FC Volendam 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Sittard 54% | FC Volendam 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 1.96 xG and FC Volendam 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.951 / defence 0.899 | FC Volendam attack 0.736 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 1.722 / away 1.439. Data: 41 Fortuna Sittard games / 7 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 61% | Draw 21% | FC Volendam 18%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | FC Volendam 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Fortuna Sittard (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortuna Sittard are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Fortuna Sittard 20% | FC Volendam 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Oct 2025, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 61% | Draw 21% | FC Volendam 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 53% | xG Fortuna Sittard 1.96 / FC Volendam 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.951 / def 0.899 | FC Volendam attack 0.736 / def 1.196 | league avg home 1.722 / away 1.439 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Sittard (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
0.95
FC Volendam xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 4 October 2025 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam?
Fortuna Sittard 1 - 0 FC Volendam.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 61% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Sittard the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and FC Volendam?
Record (4 meetings): Fortuna Sittard 3W | Draws 0 | FC Volendam 1W.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and FC Volendam in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. FC Volendam (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Fortuna Sittard's attack at 0.95x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus Fortuna Sittard's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Sittard Win
61%
1.64
21%
4.67
18%
5.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
2.91
0.95
FC Volendam xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
5.64
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
14%
7.09
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
2%
40.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 10.1 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 0.95 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Fortuna Sittard have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 14W 9D 18L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Volendam's form line: 26W 8D 7L from 41 games, 2.10 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, FC Volendam are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fortuna Sittard.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fortuna Sittard have posted 1.60 PPG from 20 outings (10W 2D 8L).
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 11W 6D 3L from 20 away games — 1.95 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 2.15 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 68%.
Last 41 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Early Season
FC Volendam
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 14W 9D 18L in their last 41 games (1.24 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 26W 8D 7L in their last 41 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or FC Volendam away?
FC Volendam's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.60 PPG; FC Volendam away: 1.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Fortuna Sittard have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Fortuna Sittard's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Fortuna Sittard
0
Draws
1
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and FC Volendam?
From 6 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 5, FC Volendam have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when FC Volendam 1-2 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and FC Volendam?
Fortuna Sittard have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 30%, FC Volendam 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Fortuna Sittard and 70% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Fortuna Sittard have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play FC Volendam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Fortuna Sittard's recent matches and 70% of FC Volendam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Fortuna Sittard's matches and 70% of FC Volendam's.
Do Fortuna Sittard and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fortuna Sittard edge out FC Volendam 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Sittard beat FC Volendam 1-0 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.96 xG and FC Volendam 0.95 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fortuna Sittard fell 1.0 short of their projected output. FC Volendam landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.95 / defence 0.90 against FC Volendam attack 0.74 / defence 1.20, drawn from 41/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 61% | Draw 21% | FC Volendam 18%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 54%, FC Volendam 76%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Volendam's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Fortuna Sittard winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.