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Eredivisie · Regular Season - 24

Kick-off

Fri 20 Feb 2026

19:00

Venue

Fortuna Sittard Stadion

Competition

Eredivisie

Netherlands

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Fortuna Sittard Win

48%

Fortuna Sittard

2.07

24%

Draw

4.22

28%

Excelsior

3.57

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.0%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.5%

Home win

1 – 0

8.8%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.72

Fortuna Sittard xG

Total xG

2.98

1.26

Excelsior xG

48%
24%
28%
Fortuna SittardDrawExcelsior

2.07

48%

Home win

4.22

24%

Draw

3.57

28%

Away win

Goals Markets

80%

Over 1.5

1.25

20%

Under 1.5

5.00

57%

Over 2.5

1.75

43%

Under 2.5

2.33

35%

Over 3.5

2.86

65%

Under 3.5

1.54

18%

Over 4.5

5.56

82%

Under 4.5

1.22

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

59%

BTTS Yes

1.70

41%

BTTS No

2.42

Clean Sheet

28%

Fortuna Sittard

3.51

18%

Excelsior

5.58

Win to Nil

14%

Fortuna Sittard

7.28

5%

Excelsior

19.90

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.1 6.4 4.0 1.7 0.5 0.1
1 8.8 11.0 6.9 2.9 0.9 0.2
2 7.5 9.5 6.0 2.5 0.8 0.2
3 4.3 5.4 3.4 1.4 0.4 0.1
4 1.9 2.3 1.5 0.6 0.2
5 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.719
λ Away (xG) 1.257
Total xG 2.976
League avg home goals 1.631
League avg away goals 1.422
Fortuna Sittard attack strength 1.024
Fortuna Sittard defence strength 1.085
Excelsior attack strength 0.815
Excelsior defence strength 1.029
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 57 / 23