🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Ajax cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Fortuna Sittard.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ajax beat Fortuna Sittard 1-3 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.51 xG and Ajax 1.48 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Ajax outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.83 / defence 0.86 against Ajax attack 1.22 / defence 1.07, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 38% | Draw 24% | Ajax 37%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Ajax win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 50%, Ajax 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Ajax's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.23. That form edge translated into the three points. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ajax (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights