Feyenoord vs Willem II – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (80%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Feyenoord face Willem II.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Willem II make the trip to De Kuip to face Feyenoord in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 May 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Feyenoord (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feyenoord's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at De Kuip this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Willem II's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Willem II have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Feyenoord's 2.60 PPG return is 2.10 points per game ahead of Willem II's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Feyenoord register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Willem II in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Feyenoord lead 2W to 0W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Feyenoord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Willem II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 60% versus Willem II 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 63% | Willem II 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 3.25 xG and Willem II 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.269 / defence 0.747 | Willem II attack 0.735 / defence 1.505. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.782. Feyenoord carry an above-average attack strength of 1.269 — their λ of 3.25 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Willem II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.505 — this is suppressing Feyenoord's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Feyenoord's defence rating of 0.747 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Feyenoord games / 9 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 80% | Draw 13% | Willem II 7%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.25 | Draw 7.69 | Willem II 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (80%) — a 73pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 4.23. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.23 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (3.25 / 0.98) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 80% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.23 combined xG gives a 79% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Feyenoord 70% | Willem II 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: De Kuip • Kick-off: Sunday 2 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 80% | Draw 13% | Willem II 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 61% | xG Feyenoord 3.25 / Willem II 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.269 / def 0.747 | Willem II attack 0.735 / def 1.505 | league avg home 1.703 / away 1.782 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (80%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.25
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Willem II xG
61%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs Willem II kick off?
Feyenoord vs Willem II is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 2 May 2027 at De Kuip.
Where is Feyenoord vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at De Kuip.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Willem II part of?
Feyenoord vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 80% chance of winning, Willem II a 7% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Feyenoord and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Willem II?
Record (4 meetings): Feyenoord 2W | Draws 2 | Willem II 0W.
What form are Feyenoord and Willem II in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 3.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Willem II (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Feyenoord's attack rating (1.27) and Willem II's defence rating (1.50), the model arrives at 3.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (0.73x) against Feyenoord's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 43/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 3-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.3%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.2%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
80%
1.25
13%
7.80
7%
14.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
2 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.25
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
4.23
0.98
Willem II xG
1.25
80%
Home win
7.80
13%
Draw
14.49
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
4%
25.89
Win to Nil
30%
3.31
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 3.25 expected goals for Feyenoord and 0.98 for Willem II, a combined total of 4.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Willem II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 80%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Feyenoord's recent record stands at 26W 10D 7L from 43 games, a 2.05 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Willem II, meanwhile, have gone 19W 9D 15L across 43 games — 1.53 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Feyenoord by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Willem II heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Feyenoord have managed 13W 5D 3L from 21 games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Willem II's away record stands at 10W 3D 8L across 21 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Feyenoord are averaging 2.35 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.49 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Feyenoord have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and Willem II in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 26W 10D 7L in their last 43 games (2.05 PPG), while Willem II have gone 19W 9D 15L in their last 43 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Willem II away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.10 PPG; Willem II away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Willem II in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 0-4 on 15 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Feyenoord have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Feyenoord
2
Draws
0
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Willem II?
From 4 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 2, Willem II have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Willem II 1-1 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Willem II?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Feyenoord, 62% for Willem II — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Feyenoord and 67% for Willem II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Feyenoord's games and 62% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Feyenoord vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Feyenoord's matches and 67% of Willem II's.
Do Feyenoord and Willem II tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Willem II in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.