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Feyenoord cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Waalwijk.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Feyenoord beat Waalwijk 2-0 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 33, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 3.10 xG and Waalwijk 1.18 xG, a combined 4.29. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Feyenoord fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Waalwijk landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.36 / defence 0.93 against Waalwijk attack 0.94 / defence 1.42, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 75% | Draw 14% | Waalwijk 11%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 75%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 62% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 67%, Waalwijk 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Feyenoord's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Waalwijk's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 0.77. Form held, and they took the win. Feyenoord (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights