Feyenoord 1-0 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (72%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Feyenoord face Waalwijk.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Feijenoord plays host to Feyenoord versus Waalwijk in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 18 February 2024 at 15:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Feyenoord have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feyenoord's home record at Stadion Feijenoord: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Waalwijk's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Feyenoord. A 1.40 PPG lead over Waalwijk (2.30 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Feyenoord, who have won 4 of the last 5 meetings against Waalwijk — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 2–1 with Feyenoord winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Feyenoord and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Feyenoord half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Waalwijk half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 58% versus Waalwijk 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 64% | Waalwijk 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 2.31 xG and Waalwijk 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.236 / defence 0.698 | Waalwijk attack 0.696 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.441. Feyenoord's defence rating of 0.698 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Feyenoord games / 55 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 72% | Draw 19% | Waalwijk 8%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.39 | Draw 5.26 | Waalwijk 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (72%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Feyenoord 60% | Waalwijk 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Feb 2024, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 72% | Draw 19% | Waalwijk 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 47% | xG Feyenoord 2.31 / Waalwijk 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.236 / def 0.698 | Waalwijk attack 0.696 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Waalwijk xG
47%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs Waalwijk kick off?
Feyenoord vs Waalwijk kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Waalwijk?
Feyenoord 1 - 0 Waalwijk.
Where is Feyenoord vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Waalwijk part of?
Feyenoord vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 72% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 8% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Feyenoord and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Waalwijk?
Record (5 meetings): Feyenoord 4W | Draws 1 | Waalwijk 0W.
What form are Feyenoord and Waalwijk in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Waalwijk (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Feyenoord's attack at 1.24x the league average against Waalwijk's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 2.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Waalwijk's attack (0.70x) against Feyenoord's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 3-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
72%
1.38
19%
5.15
8%
12.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
3 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
3.01
0.70
Waalwijk xG
1.38
72%
Home win
5.15
19%
Draw
12.06
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
10%
10.07
Win to Nil
36%
2.79
1%
121.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.1 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Feyenoord and 0.70 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Waalwijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 55 outings, Feyenoord have picked up 2.38 PPG on a 40W 11D 4L record — D-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Waalwijk's form line: 16W 11D 28L from 55 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Feyenoord are the form team by 1.31 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waalwijk.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Feyenoord have posted 2.33 PPG from 27 outings (19W 6D 2L).
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 4W 6D 17L from 27 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Waalwijk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Feyenoord are averaging 2.47 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.27 scored and 1.85 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 40W 11D 4L in their last 55 games (2.38 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 16W 11D 28L in their last 55 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Waalwijk away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.33 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Waalwijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Waalwijk in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Feyenoord go into this on the back of 7 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 5-1 on 9 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Feyenoord have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Feyenoord
1
Draws
0
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Waalwijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 7, Waalwijk have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2025, when Feyenoord 2-0 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Waalwijk?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 52%, Waalwijk 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Feyenoord) and 59% (Waalwijk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Waalwijk in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play Waalwijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 48% of Waalwijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Feyenoord vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Feyenoord's matches and 59% of Waalwijk's.
Do Feyenoord and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out Waalwijk 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Waalwijk 1-0 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 2.31 xG and Waalwijk 0.70 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Feyenoord fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.24 / defence 0.70 against Waalwijk attack 0.70 / defence 1.19, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 72% | Draw 19% | Waalwijk 8%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 72%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 64%, Waalwijk 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Waalwijk's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.