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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out Utrecht 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Feyenoord beat Utrecht 3-2 at De Kuip, Regular Season - 8, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 1.50 xG and Utrecht 0.81 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Feyenoord beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Utrecht outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.03 / defence 0.64 against Utrecht attack 0.88 / defence 0.86, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 53% | Draw 26% | Utrecht 20%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 56%, Utrecht 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Feyenoord's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Utrecht's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Feyenoord 2.12 PPG, Utrecht 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Feyenoord win broke the near-deadlock. Feyenoord (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Utrecht (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights