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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Feyenoord and Twente share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Feyenoord and Twente finished level at 1-1 at De Kuip, Regular Season - 17, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 1.98 xG and Twente 1.61 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Feyenoord fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.35 / defence 1.05 against Twente attack 1.08 / defence 0.87, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 47% | Draw 22% | Twente 32%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 62%, Twente 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Feyenoord's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Twente's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.54. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.36 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights