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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Sparta Rotterdam defy the odds to beat Feyenoord 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Rotterdam beat Feyenoord 3-4 at De Kuip, Regular Season - 19, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 1.89 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.24 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Feyenoord beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sparta Rotterdam outscored their 1.24 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.29 / defence 1.01 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.86 / defence 0.87, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 53% | Draw 22% | Sparta Rotterdam 25%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Sparta Rotterdam win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 62%, Sparta Rotterdam 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Feyenoord's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Sparta Rotterdam winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Feyenoord (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights