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Dominant Feyenoord run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sparta Rotterdam.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Feyenoord beat Sparta Rotterdam 3-0 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 1.56 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.18 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Feyenoord beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sparta Rotterdam landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.17 / defence 0.95 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.89 / defence 0.80, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 46% | Draw 26% | Sparta Rotterdam 29%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 67%, Sparta Rotterdam 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Feyenoord's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Feyenoord (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights