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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Feyenoord run riot with a 6-1 hammering of PEC Zwolle.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Feyenoord beat PEC Zwolle 6-1 at De Kuip, Regular Season - 15, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 2.82 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.71 xG, a combined 4.53. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Feyenoord beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.17 / defence 1.10 against PEC Zwolle attack 1.09 / defence 1.42, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 61% | Draw 17% | PEC Zwolle 22%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 83%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 66% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 62%, PEC Zwolle 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Feyenoord's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.19. Form held, and they took the win. Feyenoord (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.21 average — above their attacking norm. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 2.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights