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Dominant Feyenoord run riot with a 4-0 hammering of PEC Zwolle.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Feyenoord beat PEC Zwolle 4-0 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 30, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 2.34 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.22 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Feyenoord beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PEC Zwolle landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.26 / defence 0.93 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.99 / defence 1.14, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 62% | Draw 20% | PEC Zwolle 18%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 65%, PEC Zwolle 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Feyenoord's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. Feyenoord (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.61 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights