Feyenoord 5-0 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (79%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Feyenoord face PEC Zwolle.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Feyenoord and PEC Zwolle meet at Stadion Feijenoord in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Feyenoord's overall Eredivisie record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Feyenoord's home record at Stadion Feijenoord: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Feijenoord.
PEC Zwolle (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
PEC Zwolle away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.80 in Feyenoord's favour (2.60 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Across 3 previous meetings, Feyenoord are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 2–0 with Feyenoord winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Feyenoord and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Feyenoord — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
PEC Zwolle — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 55% versus PEC Zwolle 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 63% | PEC Zwolle 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 3.03 xG and PEC Zwolle 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.430 / defence 0.660 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.952 / defence 1.252. League average goals — home 1.693 / away 1.455. Feyenoord carry an above-average attack strength of 1.430 — their λ of 3.03 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. PEC Zwolle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.252 — this is suppressing Feyenoord's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Feyenoord's defence rating of 0.660 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 65 Feyenoord games / 31 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 79% | Draw 14% | PEC Zwolle 7%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.27 | Draw 7.14 | PEC Zwolle 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (79%) — a 72pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.94. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.94 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 79% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Feyenoord 40% | PEC Zwolle 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 79% | Draw 14% | PEC Zwolle 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 58% | xG Feyenoord 3.03 / PEC Zwolle 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.430 / def 0.660 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.952 / def 1.252 | league avg home 1.693 / away 1.455 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (79%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.03
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
0.91
PEC Zwolle xG
58%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle?
Feyenoord 5 - 0 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 79% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 7% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Feyenoord and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and PEC Zwolle?
Record (3 meetings): Feyenoord 3W | Draws 0 | PEC Zwolle 0W.
What form are Feyenoord and PEC Zwolle in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Feyenoord's attacking strength (1.43x league average) is weighed against PEC Zwolle's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.03. Flip it around — PEC Zwolle's attack (0.95x) against Feyenoord's defence (0.66x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 65/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-0, at 9.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.9%), 3-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
79%
1.27
14%
7.10
7%
13.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.03
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
3.94
0.91
PEC Zwolle xG
1.27
79%
Home win
7.10
14%
Draw
13.81
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
5%
20.72
Win to Nil
32%
3.17
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 3.03 expected goals for Feyenoord and 0.91 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 79%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Feyenoord come into this having played 65 games, going 48W 13D 4L for 2.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, PEC Zwolle sit at 1.66 PPG from 65 outings (32W 12D 21L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-W across their last five.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Feyenoord's home form reads 23W 7D 2L across 32 games on their own ground, a 2.38 PPG return.
Away from home, PEC Zwolle have taken 1.53 points per game from 32 outings (14W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Feyenoord are averaging 2.48 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.95 scored and 1.52 conceded. PEC Zwolle's attacking output running into Feyenoord's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle in 62%.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Current Season
PEC Zwolle
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 48W 13D 4L in their last 65 games (2.42 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 32W 12D 21L in their last 65 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.38 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or PEC Zwolle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, PEC Zwolle in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Feyenoord have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 5-0 on 5 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Feyenoord have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Feyenoord
0
Draws
0
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and PEC Zwolle?
From 8 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 8, PEC Zwolle have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when PEC Zwolle 0-2 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and PEC Zwolle?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 47%, PEC Zwolle 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Feyenoord and 72% for PEC Zwolle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Feyenoord's games and 66% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Feyenoord's matches and 72% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do Feyenoord and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Feyenoord run riot with a 5-0 hammering of PEC Zwolle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat PEC Zwolle 5-0 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 32, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 3.03 xG and PEC Zwolle 0.91 xG, a combined 3.94. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Feyenoord beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PEC Zwolle landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.43 / defence 0.66 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.95 / defence 1.25, drawn from 65/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 79% | Draw 14% | PEC Zwolle 7%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 79%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 63%, PEC Zwolle 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.66. Form held, and they took the win. Feyenoord (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.47 average — above their attacking norm. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.