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NEC Nijmegen cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Feyenoord.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

NEC Nijmegen beat Feyenoord 2-4 at De Kuip, Regular Season - 13, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 1.93 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.33 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen outscored their 1.33 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.15 / defence 0.89 against NEC Nijmegen attack 1.04 / defence 0.96, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 51% | Draw 22% | NEC Nijmegen 26%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual NEC Nijmegen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 61%, NEC Nijmegen 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Feyenoord's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with NEC Nijmegen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Feyenoord (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights