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Stalemate at Feyenoord's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 24, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 2.27 xG and NEC Nijmegen 0.95 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Feyenoord fell 2.3 short of their projected output. NEC Nijmegen landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.26 / defence 0.92 against NEC Nijmegen attack 0.79 / defence 1.09, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 67% | Draw 19% | NEC Nijmegen 14%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 67%, NEC Nijmegen 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Feyenoord's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.64 scoring average — below par going forward. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights