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Feyenoord cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Heracles.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Feyenoord beat Heracles 4-2 at De Kuip, Regular Season - 20, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 2.86 xG and Heracles 1.40 xG, a combined 4.25. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Feyenoord beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.38 / defence 1.19 against Heracles attack 0.81 / defence 1.28, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 68% | Draw 16% | Heracles 16%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 62%, Heracles 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Feyenoord's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Heracles's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win. Feyenoord (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.33 average — above their attacking norm. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights